Russia and the United States where the future is next?

When Barack Obama in January 2009 became president of the Russian-American relations were tense and very complex. Agreements on arms control were on the verge of collapse, and co-operation came to replace the sharp conflicts. So much so, that some observers, including Mikhail Gorbachev, announced the launch of a new Cold War. Although these estimates may seem like an exaggeration, the tension between the two former superpowers has been really powerful, especially under President George W. Bush. In Bush's first term, for example, the United States has consistently worked to enlarge NATO and the approach to block Russia's borders. At the same time completely ignored the promise of George Bush to Gorbachev that NATO would refrain from moving to the east beyond the reunited Germany. And when the U.S. unilaterally adopted in June 2002 decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty, the cooperation started continue to weaken and crumble. ABM Treaty was considered the basis for nuclear safety in Russia. As stated Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev, the Kremlin felt that he was "deceived and betrayed."

But when President Obama took office, Washington, as it seemed, was ready to recognize the seriousness of the deterioration of relations with Russia. In 2009, Obama said that "reset" relations with Moscow will be a priority of his foreign policy.

As noted in the World Politics Review, the most obvious improvement in US-Russian relations today is to change the tone of communication. Statements by Moscow and Washington are much more conciliatory in nature. Obama and Medvedev are common with each other and seem to relish the opportunity to appear in the image of the president-minded. Responding to questions about the restart, each emphasizes its progress and results as evidence of their personal friendship. In a rare interview with the Financial Times in June this year, Medvedev has sought to publicly acknowledge the fact that the Russian-American relations have greatly improved thanks to the efforts of the two administrations. He noted that work with Obama, it's easy, and added: "I'd like to see Barack Obama a second time, was elected as President of the United States, more than perhaps anyone else." During the current July 7 interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the state TV channel "Russia 24", he said the United States has become "more reliable, more predictable, more consistent partner."

However, improvements are not limited to only one change of tone. So far, Obama and Medvedev approved a new START-3 for nuclear disarmament and agreed on an interim basis for cooperation on missile defense, which was one of the main sources of friction between the two countries in the Bush era. After the July visit of Minister Lavrov in Washington the White House announced that Obama actively supports Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Having made a rare step for a leader, not a head of state, Lavrov met with Obama and discussed a wide range of issues - from human to adopt to Libya and Syria. The result was an agreement on adoption, which he signed with the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It includes a provision stating that the organization of adoptions in Russia can only deal with those agencies that are approved by Moscow. This agreement was concluded in connection with the powerful reaction of indignation over the fact that a woman from Tennessee "back" of her adopted seven children back to Russia, where he flew there, without any accompaniment. During the visit, Lavrov, he and Clinton reiterated that the United States and Russia will continue to deal with disposing of weapons-grade plutonium. In addition, an agreement was signed on simplification of visa regime.

However, rebooting Obama has been limited. Key issues such as missile defense and NATO expansion, have not been solved and remains a source of irritation, and politicians from both parties oppose the deepening of bilateral ties. But there is still time to make the Obama administration confidently pressed the reset button.

Who betrays whom?

One of the major impediments to progress in US-Russian relations, a force of political opposition in Washington and Moscow. In Washington, many Republican lawmakers in Congress criticized the administration for its attempts at rapprochement with Medvedev, continually expressing concern about human rights violations in Russia. So, after a hearing on the administration of Republican politics restart from Florida Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen), who heads the House committee on foreign affairs, said that "Russia day by day more and more takes the Stalinist guise." "The administration should put an end to a string of concessions to Moscow regime, since they do not lead to increased cooperation with the U.S." - she said. More recently, Ros-Lehtinen promised to block Russia's WTO accession. Her statements echo the New American Cold War hawks who continually act to attack Obama on reboot, and sometimes even to compare it with the Nazi-Soviet pact of 1939. According to an article in Nation Steven Cohen (Stephen F. Cohen), in the absence of "countervailing pro-Russian lobby and substantial Russian-American economic relations that can support the restart," Obama's policy towards Russia is extremely vulnerable to attack.

Supporters reset in Moscow are also faced with no less sharp criticism. Using stamps Cold War, many believe attempts at rapprochement by the Obama ploy, aimed at further intervention in the affairs of Russia. Even President Medvedev declared enemy of the state for his friendliness toward Washington. Its March decision to abstain from voting on the air in the NATO bombing of Libya by many, and in the first place, the former Russian ambassador to that country, Vladimir Chamov, regarded as a "betrayal" of Russian interests. In fact, open American support for candidates Medvedev in the presidential election in 2012 has caused dissatisfaction over U.S. interference in the internal affairs of Russia. In other words, the personal friendship of presidents has not led to broad support for the bilateral relations by the political class in Russia.

While Medvedev did not "betray" Russia's interests, cooperation on equal terms is not happening. In fact, one of the main fault reset is that it is carried out selectively. Yes, the United States has received support from the Kremlin on Iran and the Afghan War (Russia provides assistance in terms of intelligence, supplying weapons to the Northern Alliance and allow coalition forces flew over its territory). But Obama is not inferior to the two issues of American politics that cause the most dissatisfaction in Moscow: the eastward expansion of NATO and the deployment of missile defense in the immediate proximity of Russian borders. This imbalance is not only irritating on a restart, but also undermines the authority of Medvedev. Even Putin, who publicly declared: "And where is this reset?"

And Lavrov acknowledged that some important issues, including NATO plans to deploy a missile defense system in Europe, continue to poison US-Russian relations. In July, NATO rejected the Russian proposal for a so-called sectoral missile defense system in Europe, in which an individual country or group of countries should be responsible for their particular sector of missile defense. The Russian proposal removed from the agenda of talks between Russia and NATO. If Russia favors a joint missile defense system with full interoperability of its elements, the Alliance insists on independence and autonomy of the two separate systems, among which you can exchange information. In addition, NATO refuses to provide legally binding assurances that its missile defense system will not be directed against Russia.

Moscow, in contrast to the alliance, argues that such a guarantee is the only way to prevent a new arms race. Lavrov openly stated that a compromise on the issue, which is now unlikely, "translated to them (the U.S. and Russia) relations to the level of alliance." In this regard, Obama has so far breaks its own plans to conclude an agreement on the reduction of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, short range. As Medvedev warned, if the conflict on the ABM issue is not resolved on the basis of absolute equality, we can expect "another escalation of the arms race."

What should I do?

To resolve, or at least reduce the conflict, the Obama administration should work with the Kremlin to develop a new model of cooperation on missile defense. The first and very important step in this process is to provide legal guarantees for Moscow that the European missile defense system is not aimed against Russia. Such a move would hurt to go to Moscow responses, such as building a nuclear capability. Medvedev said earlier that Russia will expand its nuclear capacity and impact will come out of the START-3, if the U.S. or NATO missile defense system would threaten its security. Speaking in May at a news conference, Medvedev clearly expressed its position on the matter: "Everyone should be clear that the missile defense - a way of blocking, or edema, and strategic capabilities of many countries ... When we say this is not directed against you, - I take note of, but I understand that other countries, which in this case refers to [Iran and North Korea], features such as Russia, do not yet have and are unlikely to in the coming years will have ... So, it's against us. "

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States insisted that Russia under any circumstances can not form a powerful sphere of influence in former Soviet territories. This is another fundamental issue of the dispute underlying the deterioration of Russian-American relations. According to Cohen, "... we must ask what Moscow really need in the former Soviet republics ... as the main requirement of the Kremlin leadership is the lack of pro-American military bases and states in the neighboring countries. In short, they do not become members of NATO. Is this unreasonable? "States such as Ukraine and Georgia are part of a Russian sphere of security. As during the Bush years, the traditional "ghost" that prevents a drastic improvement in Russian-American relations, it is lasting for 12 years the expansion of NATO towards Russia's borders.

To resolve this geopolitical conflict, Washington should work on the implementation of Bush's broken promise that Western troops would not be placed in any new country of NATO to the east of Germany. In response, Moscow could confirm that recognizes the sovereignty of former Soviet republics. Such a compromise will not only reduce Russian concerns about NATO's missile defense programs in Eastern Europe, but also confirms the commitment of the Obama restarts without violating at the same time to guarantee the NATO collective security for all member countries.

To establish a true partnership, the United States and Russia should take advantage of the opportunities of economic cooperation to build success. While large American companies such as Cisco, Chevron and General Electric, signed important contracts in Russia, trade and investment ties between the two countries are far from optimal. As noted by Vice President Joe Biden, "the value of goods crossing our borders daily with Canada and Mexico exceeds the amount of our annual trade with Russia." In 2010 Russia became the only U.S. 37th export market in terms of trade, and the amount of trade between the two countries amounted to only 23.5 billion, or approximately 3.8% of total foreign trade of Russia. Strengthening economic ties can serve as a development co-operation on security and nuclear nonproliferation. In order to improve economic relations are extremely important step is to repeal Jackson-Vanik amendment. This law of the Cold War linked the trade relations with Russia, with the rights of religious minorities to emigrate.

However, as explained President Obama, the success of bilateral trade in the future depends on Russia's ability to modernize its economy and implement political liberalization. Case 37-year-old lawyer on tax issues Magnitsky, exposing the largest tax fraud in Russian history, but it was because of his honesty in jail and beaten to death, is an important reminder of the corruption that eats away today Russia. Although many aspects of the case Magnitsky, as well as other human rights defenders who gave their lives in an attempt to expose injustice, to investigate in the U.S. is difficult, some of the steps taken in this regard is still possible. As you continue to reset bilateral relations in the United States should stand firm on issues of human rights violations in Russia, while maintaining a visa ban on entry into the U.S. of those Russian officials who were involved in the torture and Magnitsky to his death. As co-chairman of the Helsinki Commission of the U.S. Senate, Ben Cardin (Ben Cardin), Washington must first be made clear that "respect for human rights helps improve relations and trade, and it is not long-term goals."

Obama continues to tout the "successes" reset with Russia, calling it his chief foreign policy achievement. And 2012 may be marked by even more specific changes in the Russian-American relations. Now the problem is how to avoid the mentality of the Cold War and to prevent that bilateral relations stuck in standby mode.